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The Resource Known unknowns : unconventional "strategic shocks" in defense strategy development, Nathan Freier

Known unknowns : unconventional "strategic shocks" in defense strategy development, Nathan Freier

Creator
Contributor
Summary
The current defense team confronted a game-changing "strategic shock" in its first 8 months in office. The next team would be well-advised to expect the same. Defense-relevant strategic shocks jolt convention to such an extent that they force sudden, unanticipated change in the Department of Defense's (DoD) perceptions about threat, vulnerability, and strategic response. Their unanticipated onset forces the entire defense enterprise to reorient and restructure institutions, employ capabilities in unexpected ways, and confront challenges that are fundamentally different than those routinely considered in defense calculations. The likeliest and most dangerous future shocks will be unconventional. They will not emerge from thunderbolt advances in an opponent's military capabilities. Rather, they will manifest themselves in ways far outside established defense convention. Most will be nonmilitary in origin and character, and not, by definition, defense-specific events conducive to the conventional employment of the DoD enterprise. They will rise from an analytical no man's land separating well-considered, stock and trade defense contingencies and pure defense speculation. Their origin is most likely to be in irregular, catastrophic, and hybrid threats of "purpose" (emerging from hostile design) or threats of "context" (emerging in the absence of hostile purpose or design). Of the two, the latter is both the least understood and the most dangerous
Language
eng
Work
Publication
Extent
1 online resource (viii, 44 pages).
Note
  • Title from title screen (viewed on Feb. 1, 2011)
  • "November 2008."
  • "The current defense team confronted a game-changing "strategic shock" in its first 8 months in office. The next team would be well-advised to expect the same. Defense-relevant strategic shocks jolt convention to such an extent that they force sudden, unanticipated change in the Department of Defense's (DoD) perceptions about threat, vulnerability, and strategic response. Their unanticipated onset forces the entire defense enterprise to reorient and restructure institutions, employ capabilities in unexpected ways, and confront challenges that are fundamentally different than those routinely considered in defense calculations. The likeliest and most dangerous future shocks will be unconventional. They will not emerge from thunderbolt advances in an opponent's military capabilities. Rather, they will manifest themselves in ways far outside established defense convention. Most will be nonmilitary in origin and character, and not, by definition, defense-specific events conducive to the conventional employment of the DoD enterprise. They will rise from an analytical no man's land separating well-considered, stock and trade defense contingencies and pure defense speculation. Their origin is most likely to be in irregular, catastrophic, and hybrid threats of "purpose" (emerging from hostile design) or threats of "context" (emerging in the absence of hostile purpose or design). Of the two, the latter is both the least understood and the most dangerous."--P. vii
Contents
  • Summary
  • Introduction : the failure of imagination
  • "Known unknowns" : predictable but unpredicted strategic shocks
  • Trapped by convention : seeing the future we want?
  • Seeing the whole future : incorporating shocks in defense strategy
  • Routinizing imagination : plausible unconventional shocks
  • Conclusion : Avoiding the next blue ribbon panel
  • or worse
Link
http://purl.fdlp.gov/GPO/gpo3624
Instance
Label
Known unknowns : unconventional "strategic shocks" in defense strategy development
Title
Known unknowns
Title remainder
unconventional "strategic shocks" in defense strategy development
Statement of responsibility
Nathan Freier
Title variation
Unconventional "strategic shocks" in defense strategy development
Creator
Contributor
Subject
Genre
Language
eng
Summary
The current defense team confronted a game-changing "strategic shock" in its first 8 months in office. The next team would be well-advised to expect the same. Defense-relevant strategic shocks jolt convention to such an extent that they force sudden, unanticipated change in the Department of Defense's (DoD) perceptions about threat, vulnerability, and strategic response. Their unanticipated onset forces the entire defense enterprise to reorient and restructure institutions, employ capabilities in unexpected ways, and confront challenges that are fundamentally different than those routinely considered in defense calculations. The likeliest and most dangerous future shocks will be unconventional. They will not emerge from thunderbolt advances in an opponent's military capabilities. Rather, they will manifest themselves in ways far outside established defense convention. Most will be nonmilitary in origin and character, and not, by definition, defense-specific events conducive to the conventional employment of the DoD enterprise. They will rise from an analytical no man's land separating well-considered, stock and trade defense contingencies and pure defense speculation. Their origin is most likely to be in irregular, catastrophic, and hybrid threats of "purpose" (emerging from hostile design) or threats of "context" (emerging in the absence of hostile purpose or design). Of the two, the latter is both the least understood and the most dangerous
Member of
Cataloging source
OCLCE
http://library.link/vocab/creatorName
Freier, Nathan
Government publication
federal national government publication
Index
no index present
Literary form
non fiction
Nature of contents
  • dictionaries
  • bibliography
http://library.link/vocab/relatedWorkOrContributorName
  • Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute
  • Army War College (U.S.)
Series statement
PKSOI papers
http://library.link/vocab/subjectName
  • United States
  • Surprise (Military science)
  • Military art and science
  • Strategy
Target audience
general
Label
Known unknowns : unconventional "strategic shocks" in defense strategy development, Nathan Freier
Link
http://purl.fdlp.gov/GPO/gpo3624
Instantiates
Publication
Note
  • Title from title screen (viewed on Feb. 1, 2011)
  • "November 2008."
  • "The current defense team confronted a game-changing "strategic shock" in its first 8 months in office. The next team would be well-advised to expect the same. Defense-relevant strategic shocks jolt convention to such an extent that they force sudden, unanticipated change in the Department of Defense's (DoD) perceptions about threat, vulnerability, and strategic response. Their unanticipated onset forces the entire defense enterprise to reorient and restructure institutions, employ capabilities in unexpected ways, and confront challenges that are fundamentally different than those routinely considered in defense calculations. The likeliest and most dangerous future shocks will be unconventional. They will not emerge from thunderbolt advances in an opponent's military capabilities. Rather, they will manifest themselves in ways far outside established defense convention. Most will be nonmilitary in origin and character, and not, by definition, defense-specific events conducive to the conventional employment of the DoD enterprise. They will rise from an analytical no man's land separating well-considered, stock and trade defense contingencies and pure defense speculation. Their origin is most likely to be in irregular, catastrophic, and hybrid threats of "purpose" (emerging from hostile design) or threats of "context" (emerging in the absence of hostile purpose or design). Of the two, the latter is both the least understood and the most dangerous."--P. vii
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references (pages 37-44)
Carrier category
online resource
Carrier category code
cr
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Content category
text
Content type code
txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Contents
Summary -- Introduction : the failure of imagination -- "Known unknowns" : predictable but unpredicted strategic shocks -- Trapped by convention : seeing the future we want? -- Seeing the whole future : incorporating shocks in defense strategy -- Routinizing imagination : plausible unconventional shocks -- Conclusion : Avoiding the next blue ribbon panel -- or worse
Control code
18880270
Dimensions
unknown
Extent
1 online resource (viii, 44 pages).
Form of item
online
Media category
computer
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
c
Specific material designation
remote
System control number
(OCoLC)ocn609303404
Label
Known unknowns : unconventional "strategic shocks" in defense strategy development, Nathan Freier
Link
http://purl.fdlp.gov/GPO/gpo3624
Publication
Note
  • Title from title screen (viewed on Feb. 1, 2011)
  • "November 2008."
  • "The current defense team confronted a game-changing "strategic shock" in its first 8 months in office. The next team would be well-advised to expect the same. Defense-relevant strategic shocks jolt convention to such an extent that they force sudden, unanticipated change in the Department of Defense's (DoD) perceptions about threat, vulnerability, and strategic response. Their unanticipated onset forces the entire defense enterprise to reorient and restructure institutions, employ capabilities in unexpected ways, and confront challenges that are fundamentally different than those routinely considered in defense calculations. The likeliest and most dangerous future shocks will be unconventional. They will not emerge from thunderbolt advances in an opponent's military capabilities. Rather, they will manifest themselves in ways far outside established defense convention. Most will be nonmilitary in origin and character, and not, by definition, defense-specific events conducive to the conventional employment of the DoD enterprise. They will rise from an analytical no man's land separating well-considered, stock and trade defense contingencies and pure defense speculation. Their origin is most likely to be in irregular, catastrophic, and hybrid threats of "purpose" (emerging from hostile design) or threats of "context" (emerging in the absence of hostile purpose or design). Of the two, the latter is both the least understood and the most dangerous."--P. vii
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references (pages 37-44)
Carrier category
online resource
Carrier category code
cr
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Content category
text
Content type code
txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Contents
Summary -- Introduction : the failure of imagination -- "Known unknowns" : predictable but unpredicted strategic shocks -- Trapped by convention : seeing the future we want? -- Seeing the whole future : incorporating shocks in defense strategy -- Routinizing imagination : plausible unconventional shocks -- Conclusion : Avoiding the next blue ribbon panel -- or worse
Control code
18880270
Dimensions
unknown
Extent
1 online resource (viii, 44 pages).
Form of item
online
Media category
computer
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
c
Specific material designation
remote
System control number
(OCoLC)ocn609303404

Subject

Genre

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